Kenya’s floriculture industry, a cornerstone of its export economy, continues to thrive as the country’s third-largest foreign exchange earner after tea and coffee. Contributing approximately 1.4% to the nation’s GDP, the sector is renowned for its high-quality cut flowers, particularly roses, which dominate global markets. However, recent developments in 2025 highlight both the resilience and vulnerabilities of this vibrant industry. This blog post explores the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping Kenya’s flower exports, drawing on current data and industry insights.
A Snapshot of Kenya’s Flower Export Sector
Kenya’s floriculture industry is a global leader, exporting over 100 varieties of flowers, with roses accounting for more than 60% of shipments. The Netherlands (43.3% of exports), the United Kingdom (17.1%), Germany, and Norway are the primary markets, with emerging demand from Japan, China, and Malaysia. The sector is projected to reach a value of USD 1.15 billion by the end of 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2%, potentially climbing to USD 1.48 billion by 2030. Favorable climatic conditions, expanded farmland, and growing global demand drive this optimistic outlook.
Recent Challenges in Flower Exports
Despite its strong foundation, Kenya’s flower industry faced significant hurdles in 2025:
1. Decline in Export Volumes and Earnings
According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), flower exports experienced a notable decline in June 2025, alongside coffee and vegetable shipments. Cumulative horticultural exports for the first half of 2025 totaled 3,617.5 thousand metric tons, down from 4,573.7 thousand metric tons in the same period of 2024. This downturn has raised concerns about foreign exchange inflows and the livelihoods of farmers reliant on export markets.
2. Logistical Disruptions at JKIA
Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA), a critical hub for perishable goods, has been a bottleneck for flower exporters. In 2024 and continuing into 2025, international airlines reduced cargo capacity on European routes due to the Red Sea security crisis, which disrupted shipping lanes. This led to a 12% drop in export volumes last year, with further impacts in 2025, including the suspension of a weekly Turkish Airlines freighter service to the Netherlands, affecting 100 tonnes of flowers. The Kenya Flower Council estimates losses of Sh1.4 billion (approximately USD 10.8 million) due to these disruptions, with 70% of Kenya’s flowers destined for the Netherlands.
Regulatory and Market Opportunities
Amid these challenges, Kenya’s floriculture sector is actively adapting to maintain its competitive edge:
1. Compliance with EU Regulations
The European Union, a key market, has tightened regulations on pest interceptions, particularly for roses, which make up 34% of Kenya’s flower exports to the EU. In response, the Kenya Plant Health Inspectorate Service (KEPHIS) validated the Rose Food Commodities Movement Surveillance and Assurance (FCMSA) protocol on January 16, 2025. This initiative, developed with input from farmers, exporters, and government agencies, aims to reduce the current 25% sampling rate imposed by the EU since May 2024 and ensure compliance with EU Regulation 2024/2004, effective April 26, 2025. Successful implementation could bolster market access and export reliability.
2. AGOA Extension and U.S. Market Potential
The renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) until September 30, 2025, offers Kenyan exporters enhanced access to the U.S. market, the world’s largest importer of cut flowers. A USAID workshop held in Nairobi on September 14, 2025, emphasized strategies to leverage AGOA, including market analysis and technical support from the Kenya Flower Council. This presents a significant opportunity to diversify export markets beyond Europe.
Looking Ahead: A Resilient Future for Kenyan Flowers
Kenya’s floriculture industry is poised for growth despite recent setbacks. The sector’s ability to navigate logistical challenges, comply with stringent international regulations, and tap into new markets will be critical. Stakeholders are also advocating for streamlined customs processes, hybrid air-sea freight solutions, and increased engagement of youth and women in agribusiness to enhance resilience.
As Kenya continues to bloom on the global stage, the flower export industry remains a testament to the country’s agricultural prowess. By addressing current challenges and seizing new opportunities, Kenya’s floriculture sector is set to flourish, bringing beauty and economic value to markets worldwide.
Sources: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), Kenya Flower Council, USAID, and KEPHIS reports.